Author Topic: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?  (Read 8329 times)

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Offline Alligator

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Just taking the question in Geoff's thread in a slightly different direction, I have been pondering whether what we saw yesterday was Robert and Justin winning a war, or simply winning a battle.

Anne Snelgrove looked quite shell shocked last night and my immediate assumption would be that if she lost the election she, along with Victor, would fade into the background and possibly start searching for their parachutes in time to be dropped into another seat in time for the next election.  However the balance of parliament has thrown this open.

We know today that we have two tory MPs but it's still unclear whether we have two tory opposition MPs or two tory government MPs.  The outcome of this could have a direct bearing on what happens in Swindon over the coming months and will determine whether we've just seen a battle or a war come to an end.

Whoever froms a government in the coming days will have to make difficult decisions and the scenarios could have significant knock on effects.

Scenario 1:

The tories manage to take power as either a slightly ill-fitting coalition with the Lib Dems or as a minority government they start to press ahead with the actions that they stood by during the campaign and we, the people of Swindon start to feel that pain.  The differences in the economic and European policies between the tories and the Lib Dems will put any coalition under intense pressure and, if they operate as a minority, runs the risk of being unworkable if they can't get their plans through the house.

Either way, the pain will be being felt by the people and Robert and Justin will be in the firing line and will be unpopular MPs.

Secenario 2:

Labour hold on to power through a deal with the Lid Dems or others.  We therefore have two opposition MPs who are able to challenge and scrutinise the actions of the coalition government.  We will all still feel the pain of difficult decisions, but the pain will be in differnet places and may come at different times.

My gut feeling is that a government under scenario 2 has the better chance of surviving for longer, but the conditions placed on a coalition by the Lib Dems, which may include a referendum on electoral reform could be it's uindoing.  Afterall, if a referendum results in the people supporting electoral reform, then once implemented it means that the Lib Dems have an incentive to disband the coailition and force another election.

This all could have profound implications on the fortunes of our local politicians as the government that follows yesterday's election will prove to be very unpopular very quickly once they start to make deifficult decisions.  Therefore my view is that the long term career in parliament of Robert and Justin may be better served if we see a Lib/Lab coalition now rather than a tory government today.  If the tories do manage to take control now then I think Anne may have a strong chance of winning the seat back at the next election, which may be much sooner than we know.

If I was Robert or Justin, I would be making damn sure that I was seen as being even handed as an MP, ensuring that I keep as close an eye on the local political scene as the national one  I'd be sure that I was non-partisan in applying a critical eye on and in scrutinising the tory controlled council.  The actions of the council could be there undoing.  If you mix a minority/coalition tory government making unpopular decisions with a council leader that behaves like Robert Mugabe then they have everything to fear from an unsustainable government.  It will result in a poll bounce for labour just in time for a possible general election.

The other risk of an unsustainable government is that many of their election promises will be lost in the noise of yah boo politics and which will, in part, be deliberate as the fewer promises they deliver on in the short term, the more ammunition and promises they have in their armoury for the next election campaign.  Meanwhile any criticism for not delivering on the promises can be blamed on the other parties and an ineffective parliament.

If I were Anne Snelgrove I would be seriously considering sticking around in Swindon South, she's a known face and could potentially capitalise on being an 'opponent' of the sitting MPs if another election will follow sooner rather than later.  If I was Robert or Justin I would seriosuly thinking of pushing Cameron to let a Lib/Lab coalition form the next government and form a robust oppostion.

I would give a Lib/Lab coalition a longer life and a tory minority or a tory/Lib coalition or a minority tory government, but I don't give any of these any longer than 12-18 months.  Right now being an oppostion politician may be a better place to be than being a minority/coalition government politician.

As I said, I think the way the local politicians behave from here will tell us if they think they have only won a battle or the war and whether they're playing a long game or would prefer to grab what they can as quickly as they can.



Offline Geoff Reid

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2010, 04:43:47 PM »

2010 - the year of 'Cast Iron Guarantees' and 'Chocolate Teapots' ?, not sure yet but one thing I genuinely fear is Toryism overflowing the Petri dish again.  In our vulnerable condition it will consume the country faster than Ebola.

Allow the Tory group the requisite period of gloating, masturbating like fevered chimps and marking lamp posts....

.....and then we'll see how their boys get on at big school.   :)

Offline Rochelle

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2010, 05:37:58 PM »
I wouldn't be saying goodbye to Victor just yet, the man has real heart and genuine commitment. He'll be back

Offline Chav

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2010, 06:11:31 PM »
I wouldn't be saying goodbye to Victor just yet, the man has real heart and genuine commitment. He'll be back

I like Victor very much so - he is a very genuine guy and has excellent people skills and has a genuine interest in people.
I got good vibes from Victor, he has a warmth about him. I am sure he will be back : )

As for the state of play nationally - I feel feckin traumatised   :o  :-\
As for Swindon , I am speechless  :-X

Its gonna be a bumpy ride - a bit like the Pepsi Max ' the big one'  (Roller-coaster) at Blackpool full of highs , lows, ups, downs, and not knowing where you are at times. (not knowing your head from your arse) - organised chaos  :D

Ask me how I feel in 6 months  :-\
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Offline Steve Wakefield

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2010, 06:50:01 PM »
I wouldn't be saying goodbye to Victor just yet, the man has real heart and genuine commitment. He'll be back

I like Victor very much so - he is a very genuine guy and has excellent people skills and has a genuine interest in people.
I got good vibes from Victor, he has a warmth about him. I am sure he will be back : )

As for the state of play nationally - I feel feckin traumatised   :o  :-\
As for Swindon , I am speechless  :-X

Its gonna be a bumpy ride - a bit like the Pepsi Max ' the big one'  (Roller-coaster) at Blackpool full of highs , lows, ups, downs, and not knowing where you are at times. (not knowing your head from your arse) - organised chaos  :D

Ask me how I feel in 6 months  :-\

I did not vote for a HUNG Parliament it was not a choice on the ballot paper. I now have a Tory MP who has a leader that is coosying up to Libdem leader. Will the tory 1922 committe a tradeunion for backbench tory MPs allow the Leadership to do deals?

What is My MPs view on Afghanistan? Tax? Immigration? ( I know he agrees with Libdems to abolish ID cards) etc as Haugue has said that cabinet posts for Libdems are on the table. This reminds me of Swindon where the Tory Council Leader makes decisions with another councillor.

Nationally it looks to me that the situation is replicating Swindon, will this be the norm? Cllr Perkins sated on Radio that Government policy is made in Swindon I think he may be right? The next 9 days are key to our future. I hope my MP is being involved in the deals with Team Clegg by Team Cameron?
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Offline Muggins

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2010, 06:51:48 PM »
I know you don't always read my information emails Chav, but I have just sent you one from the *National Council for Voluntary Organisations about what we can expect in the Voluntary and Community Sector from a hung parliament. *this org. sent me links to conservative manifestos twice, and only one each of the others.  Doesn't auger very well - and yes I did tell them.

Not that that worries me particularly, we will carry on regardless, but with 2 MP's from a different party to the council, we always had a 2nd line of defence, now where the hell do we go to - oh yes -  to hell!!  :'(

I am waiting for a phone call (or a letter - email) from Justin to reassure me that he will be doing the statesman-like things and work as hard for us as he does for his blue wards, that he will take a little time out to learn about areas of deprivation within his constituency and his attitude towards them will be one of compassion and support.  Perhaps he would like to leave that message here, so that you all can see it.
Oi! Listen mush. Old eyes, remember? I’ve been around the block a few times. More than a few. They’ve knocked down the blocks I’ve been around and rebuilt them as bigger blocks. Super blocks. And I’ve been round them as well.  The Doctor (Night Terrors)

Offline Steve Wakefield

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2010, 06:56:18 PM »
I know you don't always read my information emails Chav, but I have just sent you one from the *National Council for Voluntary Organisations about what we can expect in the Voluntary and Community Sector from a hung parliament. *this org. sent me links to conservative manifestos twice, and only one each of the others.  Doesn't auger very well - and yes I did tell them.

Not that that worries me particularly, we will carry on regardless, but with 2 MP's from a different party to the council, we always had a 2nd line of defence, now where the hell do we go to - oh yes -  to hell!!  :'(

I am waiting for a phone call (or a letter - email) from Justin to reassure me that he will be doing the statesman-like things and work as hard for us as he does for his blue wards, that he will take a little time out to learn about areas of deprivation within his constituency and his attitude towards them will be one of compassion and support.  Perhaps he would like to leave that message here, so that you all can see it.

Well he did take 400 or so votes out of Penhill and I am sure the losing Tory candidate will be in touch with you and Chav offering to help with splash park etc as they would have had they been elected?
All posts on this forum are my own opinion and do not represent the views of any council or any political party.  :banana:

Offline Chav

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2010, 06:58:02 PM »
I know you don't always read my information emails Chav, but I have just sent you one from the *National Council for Voluntary Organisations about what we can expect in the Voluntary and Community Sector from a hung parliament. *this org. sent me links to conservative manifestos twice, and only one each of the others.  Doesn't auger very well - and yes I did tell them.

Not that that worries me particularly, we will carry on regardless, but with 2 MP's from a different party to the council, we always had a 2nd line of defence, now where the hell do we go to - oh yes -  to hell!!  :'(

I am waiting for a phone call (or a letter - email) from Justin to reassure me that he will be doing the statesman-like things and work as hard for us as he does for his blue wards, that he will take a little time out to learn about areas of deprivation within his constituency and his attitude towards them will be one of compassion and support.  Perhaps he would like to leave that message here, so that you all can see it.

Muggins - I always read what you send me - I do , I  do , I do - but I don't always remember it all  :D
I haven't checked me emails today, but I will do it shortly  ;)

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Offline Muggins

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2010, 07:03:38 PM »
Steve,

The Splash Park isn't the only thing going on up here - good thought it is........it's part of  a bigger plan.   We need the councillors for that more than the MP's!   Andy H is fully aware of the plans and other community stuff and I'm sure he'll soon get stuck in.   Having said that we've had fairly good support from the Parks people.  Steve, you really must come up and we'll show you around. 

But no doubt we will  find a job for him soon!
Oi! Listen mush. Old eyes, remember? I’ve been around the block a few times. More than a few. They’ve knocked down the blocks I’ve been around and rebuilt them as bigger blocks. Super blocks. And I’ve been round them as well.  The Doctor (Night Terrors)

Offline Chav

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2010, 07:04:25 PM »
Quote
Well he did take 400 or so votes out of Penhill and I am sure the losing Tory candidate will be in touch with you and Chav offering to help with splash park etc as they would have had they been elected?

I doubt that she would be that interested Steve  :(
To be honest it was hard enough trying to get her along the the question time event to meet the residents - so I doubt very much that one would give up their time for anything else really !

However, who am I to judge, so I may well ask  ;)
"Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects." -- Lester B. Pearson.

Offline Muggins

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2010, 07:08:07 PM »
Chav, I think Steve means the MP not the local candidate!  Chances are she was was only ever a paper candidate anyway.
Oi! Listen mush. Old eyes, remember? I’ve been around the block a few times. More than a few. They’ve knocked down the blocks I’ve been around and rebuilt them as bigger blocks. Super blocks. And I’ve been round them as well.  The Doctor (Night Terrors)

Offline Buster

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2010, 11:51:43 AM »
Just sidestepping the insular ramblings of the Penhill mob, my views on the subject of this thread are that the loss of the immediate chance to form a government is the best thing that could have happened to the labour party and Anne Snelgrove, though not for Gordon Brown.  I reserve judgement on Victor Agarwal as I haven't met him and his recent skydive into North Swindon means that he has yet to prove himself as anything other than a nice guy.

I have no doubt that a deal will be done between two of the main parties and possibly, if the tories don't do the deal, other parties as part of a liberal democrat-labour rainbow coalition.  My money will be on some sort of loose deal between the tories and the liberal democrats.

I also don't think any deal will have longevity, but it may just be long enough for the labour party to kick Brown out, re-group, pick a new leader, who will be the opposite of Brown i.e. younger and glossier and in possession of a Blair type charisma once installed they can decide what their focus and policies are going to be.

Whoever they pick as leader, the process of getting a new leader will force labour to have the debates that should have happened in 2007 when Brown was crowned as PM.  An opposition party can afford themselves the luxury of a debate that they chose not to have when in power.  If the debate doesn't kill them, it could make 'em stronger.

In the time that the labour party do all this, the tories will have their bonfire of labour laws, a bonfire that labour can appear to oppose, but will probably privately be relieved to be rid of most of them have acted as a millstone around their necks anyway.

If I was Robtin Bucklinson I would be worried and would be very keen to prove my worth as an MP.  They may have a lot less time to prove themselves than they hope.  Having a bonfire of labour laws won't be enough to secure them back in parliament after the next election, afterall, we all know that the tories would have done this with or without the Swindon MPs.  They can't claim ANY credit for this happening.  They instead need to be focussed on local action, local accountability and local delivery.

My bet is for an election in less than 12 months, possibly as soon as October 2010 and I don't think it's all over for labour in swindon and it's all still to play for.

One thing I do take some enjoyment from is knowing that Anne won't get her gold plated pension, having only served 5 years, she is one year short of being entitled to this.......welcome to our world Anne  :)

Offline Mart

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2010, 08:07:34 PM »
Balls.

I don't mean Clouseau's costumiers either.

Equally inept, but much more sinister.
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Offline Geoff Reid

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2010, 01:03:40 AM »
I can't see Ed 'Blinky' Balls getting the leadership of the Labour party on account of him being a nasty, vicious bastard sort of thing.

I could see Alan Johnson and David Milliband being quite popular though.

Offline moley

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2010, 09:14:06 AM »
I can't see Ed 'Blinky' Balls getting the leadership of the Labour party on account of him being a nasty, vicious bastard sort of thing.

I could see Alan Johnson and David Milliband being quite popular though.

Read a rumour that there might be a Milliband + Cruddas ticket which I could see being very popular (and stopping the labour party from fragmenting).

Moley

Offline Steve Wakefield

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2010, 09:55:12 AM »
Has the ConDem deal been done then? Why then this talk of Labour leadership challenge? The question is can cameron survive as he has not deliverd a majority despite his (trust me) changes for the better to the tory party. He has delivered a mediocre performance and the votes prove it. Clegg has less MPs and his leadership is not secure either.
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Offline Chav

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2010, 10:37:27 AM »
 :coffee:  :popcorn:
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Offline Alligator

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2010, 12:13:07 PM »
I can't see Ed 'Blinky' Balls getting the leadership of the Labour party on account of him being a nasty, vicious bastard sort of thing.

I could see Alan Johnson and David Milliband being quite popular though.

Speaking to a labour councillor yesterday I learned that the local labour team supporting Anne are absolutely shocked by the outcome of the election and they were due to meet with Anne yesterday, presumably to chew over the results and decide what to do next.  I don't know the outcome of the meeting, but as I have said before, I think she she should stick around in Swindon and I shared that view with the councillor. 

My view is that the tories and lib dems will do a deal that will survive long enough to kill Gordon's chances of staying in Downing St and give labour a chnace to reinvent themselves all of which will give labour the best chance in years of improviong their standing if/when the tory/lib dem deal falls apart.

My view would be that either David Milliband or Alan Johnson as leader with a more left-leaning deputy (such as Crudas) will be their best ticket. 

Balls is discredited purely by being too close to Brown but personally I think there's something about his style that reminds me of the more sinister teachers I recall from school, the type how knows how to physically hurt a child without actually hitting them or leaving a bruise......Ed Milliband strikes me as being a bit 'spesh.  I think it's the slightly gormless expression he carries most of the time coupled with a voice that sounds like he talks out of his nose.

Whatever happens, the outcome of the impending leadership challenge in the national labour party will colour Anne's chances significantly.


Offline Steve Wakefield

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2010, 12:23:19 PM »
AliG

An interesting conversation with Labour by the sounds of it. Anne should stick around is that a "I want Anne Back already" or I wish Anne had won reflection?

As they say we are were we are now :popcorn:
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Offline komadori

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Re: A hung parliament - what does it mean for Swindon's politicians?
« Reply #19 on: May 09, 2010, 01:15:07 PM »
Speaking to a labour councillor yesterday I learned that the local labour team supporting Anne are absolutely shocked by the outcome of the election
This puzzles me. Her majority in 2005 was small - smaller than Mr Wills' majority in North Swindon and something that a small swing to the blues would wipe away, unless there were very big local factors in her favour. The online campaigning from Labour was all for Mr Agarwal. Ms Snelgrove seemed forgotten. As an outsider looking in, the impression I got was that her party had abandoned her cause before the campaign started.
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