It's 03.55 on Saturday morning. I've just finished work but want to jot down a few thoughts before I climb the wooden hill.
I may want to revisit this post later to correct typos and add a couple of bits.
It's not often that we voters get to witness the political death of a council administration, but I suggest the readers of the Talkswindon forum are seeing exactly this, in slow motion, up close and personal. Moreover, because we record and discuss local events here on Talkswindon, we're able to rewind the narrative and take a second look at events and statements made days, weeks, months and even years ago. We have ringside seats to this gory spectacle and, (I'm sure it will interest TS members to know), that there are many other interested eyes looking almost constantly at Swindon. Rod Bluh and his cabinet really have, as they often claim, 'Put Swindon On The Map', but not the map they were hoping for. They have no-one to blame but themselves for what is currently happening.
I've been thinking for some time that the Conservatives were at the top of their game in 2009, and that the only way forwards from that point happened to be downwards. It's fair to say that I've been fairly critical of the leadership. I think with good reason.
Cll'r Bluh and his colleagues have long enjoyed, (if 'enjoy' is the right word), a bloated majority in the council chamber with 43 out of 59 seats being held by Conservative councillors. (Actually 42 now that Cll'r Wakefield has resigned the Tory whip). I have been surprised to see such a large group of Conservatives allow themselves, (and their majority), to be used in what I would describe as a 'Blairite' manner. The leader and a tiny number of cabinet members have been Blairite in their actions, even if they haven't been Blairite in policy. I've come to think of the leadership style as 'Bluh Labour'.
The last 4 years have been a sort of politically drunken binge for them. They have swaggered where they could just as easily stepped gently, shouted when only a whisper was required, barged in where only a gentle nudge would have sufficed and seemed to delight in backroom manipulating instead of debating in the chamber. The leadership never acknowledges its multiple failures, it simply blames them on other people and it takes a special, and very personal, kind of offence when anyone, but especially Swindons MP's, passes critical comment on their activities.
The leadership closed its ears to critique and adopted an impermeable mantle of 'we know best'. Its self confidence hardened into self-congratulatory conceit and it's previously espoused political convictions melted away quicker than wax under a heat lamp. What is left in the 'conviction void' is a destructive obsession with regeneration and an unhealthy fascination with turning our council into a commercial enterprise.
Rod and pals have squandered their time in office, and our money, on chasing visions, looking sharp in their corporate threads and sounding vibrant at every available opportunity. Its only a personal opinion, but I would have liked to have seen a lot more donkey jacket and a lot less pinstripe on the front bench of the council chamber. Flamboyant is fine in small measure but rarely produces a workmanlike performance in office. Fiscal idiocy, faulty visions and failed regeneration projects all now serve to highlight that the leadership is out of money, out of time and out of ideas. They are in a deep, deep hole financially and on the ropes politically.
So....Had Rod Bluh been paying attention in the real world, instead of dabbling in dodgy digital inclusion deals, he would have seen Michael Wills'
December criticism of the council for wasting nearly £7million for what it really
was, instead of what he
wanted it to be. What did Rod want it to be?, just another attack from Michael Wills. What was it actually?, I think it was the opening shot of a war he (Michael Wills) intends to prosecute ruthlessly against both the council leadership and Justin Tomlinson. (Justin being the Tory PPC for North Swindon).
If Bluh had been paying attention he might have been better prepared to resist the very thorough public kicking he received at last Thursdays council.
I suggest that when Rod Bluh decided to use his 'special powers' as leader to unilaterally entangle the council in commercial speculation, I believe he committed an act of such utter political stupidity that Michael Wills and Anne Snelgrove must have thought all their birthdays had come early. Rod had, almost single handedly, given them the perfect opportunity and excuse to fight the general election campaigns for both Swindon constituencies on local issues.
'But Michael Wills is standing down!' I hear some of you say.....to which I reply: Yes, he is standing down as MP but
who do you think is preparing the landing ground for his replacement, Victor Argawal, and who do you think has the media connections, experience and local knowledge to make Victor the best presented, best briefed and most credible alternative to the apparently complacent and laid back Tory candidate? In fact, while Justin Tomlinson was sitting on the council chamber watching his leader reeling backwards from blow after blow on everything from Dial a Ride to the WiFi, Victors boots were already on the tarmac in Abbey Meads, he'd packed his parachute away, fixed his bayonet and had made a few deft stabs.
War was declared on them in December but the Swindon conservatives, micro managed by Bluh's leadership style, failed to see it for what it was. In January 2010 they are so focussed on the spectacle of their leadership being systematically and methodically cut to pieces by the opposition, that they have yet to even put their campaigning boots on. Perhaps a significant number of them, especially the political survivors amongst them, will simply stay at home and watch the fireworks from a safe distance..
I think we are about to witness a very intelligent combined campaign from the Labour party in Swindon. If Justin Tomlinson and Robert Buckland thought these constituencies would be easy wins they're in for a shock I think. The Tory council is, although it doesn't seem to have realised it yet, fighting for its political life. Last Thursday, as if by magic, a couple of BBC film crews arrived unannounced at the civic for full council. Rod Bluh may have thought 'Oh Goody, we really
are on the map now!'. I would love to know what his reaction was when he realised that they were filming for BBC's 'Panarama' programme. I don't know about you, but I can't remember ever seeing an edition of the Panorama program that portrayed its chosen subject to be all fine, dandy and above board.
So, was Michael Wills tugging a few strings with his media pals?, I don't know, but that is
exactly what I would do in his position. I think that Michael Wills is not only campaigning on Victors behalf, but also orchestrating a concerted effort to distract, disable, disgrace and inconvenience the conservative leadership of the council in multiple ways and to such an extent that a negative impact on the election campaigns of both Conservative PPC's, (Justin Tomlinson and Robert Buckland) would be almost inevitable, not to mention Tory candidates standing in the local elections.
Remember that Michael Wills is a good friend of Gordon Brown and Anne Snelgrove is the prime mentalists chief fag. She will be one of the very first people in the country to learn when the election will be and I'm willing to bet that both Snelgrove and Wills will be given a sufficient heads up from McDoom to distribute one further leaflet, (
using their communications allowance*), before the general election is called. If you receive a leaflet from either MP I think an election announcement will follow within days. I think of this as a 'snap' election early warning mechanism.
I believe that Rod Bluh and his cabinet within a cabinet have given the Labour party a perfect opportunity to almost completely localise the 2010 general election debate in Swindon conveniently allowing Anne Snelgrove and Victor Argawal to share the same key local messages as their candidates for council. The labour group in council are uncharacteristically well prepared, well informed and so well briefed that I think they can probably sustain the WiFi barrage for a few weeks yet and I'd be surprised if the ammunition isn't already being stacked for their assault on the budget proposal.
I reckon it will suit the Labour election campaign very nicely indeed for the Tories to conduct 'business as usual' and force an unpopular budget through council. They, (labour), will then spend every single day until election day publicly tearing the budget to pieces and highlighting every single embarrassing instance of cuts, savings, deletions, rationalisation, and reorganisation. One bee sting may inconvenience, a few be quite painful, but dozens can kill.
Come election day, whether it be local or general, I think what people will remember as they enter the polling booth is what really affects them every day and not necessarily the now more remote issues of banking crises and bonuses. What they will think about is a country that now appears to be recovering slowly, while the borough slips further into the mire with reducing services but more expensive council tax, leisure facilities et al.
Finally then, it's no secret that I want Anne Snelgrove out of office so I don't ever want to start a thread entitled 'Bluh Buggers Bucklands Bid - Snelgrove Wins'..... *
....but seeing where Bluh's leadership is taking the Tory party in Swindon it's becoming more possible by the day. Odd to think that Dead men walking the corridors of the civic may prevent Mssrs Buckland and Tomlinson from ever walking the corridors of Westminster.
Discuss....
"Something for the weekend sir?" - I think watching tomorrows Politics Show would be a
good idea* (12pm BBC1) ;)
*Don't say I didn't tell you..... ;)
* edit. Both statements are no longer accurate @ 10.04.2010
