Poll

With less than one week to the election, who do you THINK will form the next government? (Note. Who do you THINK will win, not who you WANT to win)

Conservative Majority
0 (0%)
Conservative Minority
4 (30.8%)
Conservative - Lib Dem Coalition
2 (15.4%)
Conservative - UKIP Coalition
0 (0%)
Labour Majority
0 (0%)
Labour Minority
4 (30.8%)
Labour - Lib Dem Coalition
1 (7.7%)
Labour - SNP Coalition
2 (15.4%)
Other
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 13

Voting closed: May 07, 2015, 03:25:33 PM

Author Topic: General Election Outcome  (Read 4867 times)

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Offline Spunkymonkey

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General Election Outcome
« on: May 02, 2015, 03:25:33 PM »
There are loads of opinion polls asking people who they will vote for, but who do we think will win.



Offline Geoff Reid

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2015, 03:33:07 PM »

I'm half expecting to see a Labour minority government which will horse-trade rather than enter coalition.

Not sure what to make of the polls and I'm not inclined to be steered by any of the mainstream media.

I think the Ed Miliband visiting Russell Brand is interesting, and Cameron describing it as a 'joke' probably/potentially foolish. :)

Offline Spunkymonkey

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #2 on: May 02, 2015, 03:43:49 PM »
I am also thinking that it might be a labour minority.

I thought Ed Miliband's decision to meet Russell Brand was odd. I don't think Ed trying to sound street did him any favours.

One area where I think Ed has been let off lightly is over Europe.

Farage wants to leave the EU.
Cameron wants to stay in the EU, but has promised a referendum.
Miliband wants to stay in the EU, but won't offer a referendum because he doesn't trust the public to make the right decision.

Ed's stance seems dangerous at a time when he is asking for votes, but the media don't seem to have challenged him over it.

Offline Tobes

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #3 on: May 02, 2015, 10:34:16 PM »
I really don't know of more than a handful of people taking Russell Brand seriously except chem-trailers, lazy journos wanting a story about yet another controversy, or politicians who've run out of hoodies to hug or Arctic Monkeys to endorse, and so have alighted on another popular media construct.

His online presence is clearly popular - but then again, so are a lot of other eccentrics and conspiracy/nut job sites. I'm not saying that he hasn't managed to articulate a certain amount of things which many of us have felt at one time or another (and with the odd chuckle thrown in) but the main difference I see is that he's done it with a blend of made up words nestling amongst the unnecessary verbiage - and a guaranteed level of interest from a media with a prurient interest in where he's poked his winkle or who's grandpa he's upset this week.

However entertaining his playing the media pedagogue, it clearly doesn't mean he's got any viable alternative. Instead, in my view, his blend of mysticism and hypocrisy (the anti capitalist stand up comedian millionaire hare krishna?!) shows that he risks looking as venal as the system which both made him and which he criticises.

What really distinguishes him to me is a towering ego and self-regard which is very much the superior of any of the party leaders. Not really a model for any kind of philosophy or ideology I'd like to endorse. Which makes Milliband's cozying to him all the more simultaneously bizarre and revealing.

He's right to point out the cynicism which people have for politicians and political discourse. But its ironic that in my case, he's made it 100% deeper.

Quote
I thought Ed Miliband's decision to meet Russell Brand was odd. I don't think Ed trying to sound street did him any favours.

One area where I think Ed has been let off lightly is over Europe.

Farage wants to leave the EU.
Cameron wants to stay in the EU, but has promised a referendum.
Miliband wants to stay in the EU, but won't offer a referendum because he doesn't trust the public to make the right decision.

Ed's stance seems dangerous at a time when he is asking for votes, but the media don't seem to have challenged him over it.

Couldn't agree more.
I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it - [attributed to] Voltaire... 'Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessita' - William of Occam.... 'You have a right to feel offended, but just cos you are offended doesn't mean you are right'

Offline Muggins

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2015, 08:59:21 AM »
Tobes Quote: 
What really distinguishes him to me is a towering ego and self-regard which is very much the superior of any of the party leaders. Not really a model for any kind of philosophy or ideology I'd like to endorse. Which makes Milliband's cozying to him all the more simultaneously bizarre and revealing.

And yet, despite the hoo-ah, a lot of what he says is in defence of those with less of everything than he has.

I suspect that Ed Millibands dealing with him went something like this. 

Russell Brand:Hi Ed, you know I am sup[porting you, shall we meet and do an interview.

Ed, thinking he had nothing to lose and let's face it, he hasn't, replied:

Ed: "OK, I think that might be a good idea"  (and it has been, it's been all over the media) but where will we go, would we get studio time at this late date??

Brand:  "No probs Ed, I can see you are a tight schedule and I have my own set up right here
why don't you just come over?, Half an hour should be long enough" 

Ed: "Good idea, Thank you, see you then!"

My problem with all of them is the amount of times they use the word 'I'. I thought government and party was about collective responsibility, it makes them sound like they all have huge egos and a bit scary. 



Oi! Listen mush. Old eyes, remember? I’ve been around the block a few times. More than a few. They’ve knocked down the blocks I’ve been around and rebuilt them as bigger blocks. Super blocks. And I’ve been round them as well.  The Doctor (Night Terrors)

Offline Spunkymonkey

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2015, 05:44:04 PM »
Interesting article on the BBC about the increase in the number of unopposed candidates in local elections.

In Eden District Council in Cumbria, 21 out of 38 councillors will be returned unopposed on 7 May.

In the picturesque Suffolk village of Cavendish, locals will be voting for the first time in 42 years on 7 May for a councillor. For the past 12 years, Conservative Peter Stevens has stood unopposed

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32428762

Offline the gorgon

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2015, 12:58:07 PM »
Well overall election result was a surprise, didn't expect any party to come close to a majority.

Swindon less surprising.  Especially Swindon South, frankly Labour deserved to lose after choosing flipping Snellgrove as the candidate.



Offline Muggins

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2015, 03:11:30 PM »
Inclined to agree with you there Gorgon.  Not that I had anything against her, but I haven't really heard a good word for her either. 

Same with Ed, couldn't help thinking that even of the party thought he was brilliant top chap and all that, it doesn't really matter what they think does it, it what Joe public thinks that gets them in.

Still not looking forward to the next 5 years, but as I said to Mr Muggins this morning, by the next time we have a general election it won't matter much to me or him.

He said we were Ok, but he pitied the others on the bread line, then I pointed out to him that if anything happened to him, I'd be one of 'em, because we are living on his pension, mine is a joke, seeing as how I hardly worked - sorry, had paid work, for most of our married life.

Ah well, (sigh) I suppose I deserve to be poor seeing as how I didn't.  Being a full time volunteer don't get you a pension or even the respect you'd expect.

Feeling VERY gloomy today. Not that things might have been any better under anyone else but at least we had hope - we have none now.

Looks like we'll be scraping our way to the grave and having to worry about health and welfare care too.

Oi! Listen mush. Old eyes, remember? I’ve been around the block a few times. More than a few. They’ve knocked down the blocks I’ve been around and rebuilt them as bigger blocks. Super blocks. And I’ve been round them as well.  The Doctor (Night Terrors)

Offline The Oakhurst Avenger

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2015, 06:01:53 PM »
I can't help think as I see David Cameron deliver his speech outside No. 10 what a difficult task he has ahead despite talk of the Union. Britain today, as we remember VE Day, is more divided than at any time I can remember in my lifetime. A huge socio-political chasm between Scotland and England which looks unbridgeable now - and surely Scottish Independence is a matter of when and not if. Another unbridgeable gap between those Britons who seem content to be part of the European Union and those who want Britain to be outside the European Union. Then there is a little matter of our national debt that is rising to alarming proportions as the mainstream parties still borrow and spend more than than they take in income - quibbling about who borrows less...

I didn't vote for David Cameron and don't trust him at all but he has a hell of a job on his hands
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Offline Spunkymonkey

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2015, 08:54:28 PM »
Avenger, I agree with a lot of what you say.

On paper the Tories have done better than they did in 2010 as they now have a small majority. In practice, the new government feels weaker. Between them the Tory-Lib Dem coalition had a decent majority. On there own the Tory majority is very vulnerable.

The divide between England/Scotland and potentially UK/EU is getting wider and is a major distraction to running the country. Cameron will be constantly looking over his shoulder.

Personally, I think Cameron was the best option available, but he has a really tough task ahead. I am not overly confident about the future, but I really feel that Ed Miliband would have been a disaster.

Offline The Oakhurst Avenger

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2015, 10:35:22 PM »
Spunky monkey,

The collapse of Labour making England more Tory plays even more into the hands of the Scottish Nats. People may laugh at me for saying this but I think Labour have a very serious existential threat on their hands. They as a party have lost touch with the working class and their core vote. They have already lost Scotland and they are in danger of losing their Seats in Northern England if they don't reinvent themselves in the right way. The rise of UKIP in the the North of England in labour heartland I think is one of the most interesting recent political developments. Whether you agree with UKIP or not they are offering policies that have struck a chord with the concerns of working class people - uncontrolled immigration, wage compression, pressure on public services. Tony Benn, argued very cogently that the common market as it was called then was an undemocratic institution and as a democratic socialist he was opposed to Britains membership. Tony Benn would say that modern labour has lost its way and understanding of its founding principles. If Labour want to become a force again they need to get back in touch with their founding principles which are solid and apply them to the issues working people have today.

My own recommendation for labour is to reverse their policy on EU membership. Right wing parties like UKIP have a toxicity when it comes to issues like NHS and immigration but Labour would be able to tackle the immigration issue without the toxicity.
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Offline Spunkymonkey

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2015, 11:34:03 PM »
If Labour want to become a force again they need to get back in touch with their founding principles which are solid and apply them to the issues working people have today.

I think the key word there is 'working'. Labour have become the party of the non-working classes. The working classes can relate to UKIP.

This will be a tough few years for the Tories, but if they can weather those we could have a Tory government for many years. I remember thinking that winning the 2010 election was potentially a poison chalice. Whoever won was going to struggle to remain popular in times of austerity. The incumbent was always going to be in the firing line which is why I think Cameron was smart to avoid the head to head to debates. The global economy should have recovered by 2020, so that election should be easier for the Tories.

This time round Cameron has been trying to convince people that his policies are starting to work. In five years time, his successor should be bragging about how they have worked.

I liken the last few years of government with the fortunes of Man Utd. Tony Blair and Alex Ferguson both enjoyed lengthy periods of success, but knew when to quit. Gordon Brown and David Moyes were lambs to the slaughter. David Cameron and Louis Van Gaal aren't the finished article but can at least claim to be moving in the right direction. The next five years is about a steady recovery and handing a winning team to Boris and Ryan Giggs.


Offline Alligator

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2015, 02:18:08 PM »
While the overall outcome in Swindon South and North wasn't really a surprise to me, I was surprised by the way that both candidates increased their majority.

Since the election, and following previous elections, many people complain that this government didn't get elected by a majority of the people.  However this argument sidesteps the point that we don't vote for a government, a party or the prime minister. 

Unless you live in the Witney constituency, you were't offered a chance to vote for David Cameron. 

The local candidate gaining the most votes becomes our MP whose role is to represent the constituents in parliament.   We, the public, need to remind ourselves of this, but MPs would be wise never to forget this.  If we all keep this at the forefront of our mind, MPs will be forced to do the same.

I would hope that MPs will actively demonstrate that they represent, to the best of their ability, the diverse split of opinion in their constituency and not simply the views of their supporters or their party.

I didn't vote for Anne Snelgrove as I still recall all to well how her approach to being an MP was at odds with my views as stated above.  In my opinion, rather than act to represent us, she considered herself to be her party's representative in Swindon.  She paid the price for this in 2010 and in the recent campaign she failed to demonstrate to me that she had learned that lesson.

I'm not suggesting that this can be taken to the extreme whereby we have 650 MPs all acting in their own local interest as  MPs do need to work together in order to any decisions to be taken.  The key issue though is that, first and foremost, MPs need to reflect on how those decisions affect their constituency and if that is deemed to be a negative impact, it's a vital part of their job that they explain themselves to their constituents at that time.

In terms of this election result, I think that we are seeing is a sign of a country that is beginning to fragment, currently this is most pronounced with the voting patterns of England and Scotland, though people shouldn't assume that a vote for the SNP is a vote for Scottish Independence.

My own view on this is that I would have not have supported any government that relied on MPs from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in order to get English only legislation through parliament.  To me it beggars belief that MPs, who have no accountability to English voters, should be given a say on English matters.  Especially when you consider that, due to devolution, those same MPs have absolutely no say in deciding those same issues in their own constituency.

Many questions are being asked now about what David Cameron will do about Scotland, but at the same time he is being criticised for making statements about English Votes for English Laws.  It seems that some people see this as being nationalistic language which could bring about the break up of the UK.  I don't really get the later argument.   

Nationalistic sentiment already existed in Scotland and Wales and this drove the devolution debates of the 1990s.  What these debates overlooked, and our own MPs failed us all on, was how the move to devolution in some parts of the UK effectively watered down democracy in England.

As such I think David Cameron is heading along the right path.  If he gets this right, the UK can remain in tact, but with a more federal form of governance on those issues that have been devolved.    It may be that a Scottish/Welsh or N.I. government that is accountable for raising the taxes which it then spends, may cause public opinion to shift again and help to cement the benefits of being in the UK.

Any Prime Minister, of any party, could have addressed this before now and, no matter what the outcome of this election, would still have faced this issue.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2015, 03:04:28 PM by Alligator »

Offline Geoff Reid

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2015, 02:59:05 PM »

Fair points Alistair :)

From my perspective I can't remember any previous general election campaigns which were prosecuted using so many deliberately hate fuelling and divisive stratagems.    On the plus side though, UKIPs' anti-immigrant, anti Europe, anti any-bloody-difference at all xenophobic hysteria didn't do much except possibly bolstering conservative votes.  (I don't have any psephology to back that up).

I was quite pleased to see the Pinnochio Party pruned, Ed 'Blinky' Balls booted out and Esther McWosserface lobbed out by the Scouses (geddit?), but very disappointed that the Green surge hasn't yet turned into a Green carpet.  With PR the result would have been very different for the Greens, (as it would have for UKIP and the Lib Dems), but while our antiquated FPTP electoral system continues to return majority governments neither of the two big political parties are ever going to seriously consider change.  Perhaps that would happen after several hung Parliaments, so that won't happen in my lifetime.

I think 'Blue' Labour has proven itself to be an abject failure which has left many Labour voters thinking 'WTF?' and nowhere is this more obvious than in Scotland which now has just one Labour MP, with 56 out of 59 MP's now being members of the Scottish National Party.  The Tories and Lib Dems are left with one Scottish seat each.

Interestingly, London now has a significant majority of Labour seats (45 out of 73) with the Lib Dems holding just one seat in the capital.

I think it's now very likely that the TTIP deal will be finalised rapidly and I really doubt that the NHS will survive another parliamentary term.  As far as Europe goes, (as I've told my numerous 'Kipper mates), I 'm looking forward to an in/out referendum so I can register my 'IN' vote :)

A pox on (most) of their houses! :)


Offline Phil Chitty

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2015, 04:11:17 PM »
Looking impartially at the result, locally both the best candidates won. When Tomlinson and Dempsey were on the Sunday Politics a few months ago Tomlinson was by a long way the better performer.

As far as South Swindon goes, Snelgrove was just the wrong choice of candidate, especially up against Buckland who is a very good constituency MP.

Nationally, the Tories played a blinder. I firmly believe that they frightened the electorate with their vote Millibean  get Sturgeon, who lets face it is far more left wing.

Offline Tobes

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2015, 10:11:27 PM »
Quote
I didn't vote for Anne Snelgrove as I still recall all to well how her approach to being an MP was at odds with my views as stated above.  In my opinion, rather than act to represent us, she considered herself to be her party's representative in Swindon.  She paid the price for this in 2010 and in the recent campaign she failed to demonstrate to me that she had learned that lesson.

She clearly hadn't.

Several people I know and like, know and like Anne Snelgrove - but to date, she's been unable to transfer that anecdotal reputation into the public persona I've seen. Buckland on the other hand has an excellent reputation with the people I've put in touch with him in connection with unresolved Regents Circus issues. When ever I've spoken to him - evena bout subjects on whicch our opinions differ, he has been attentive, respectful and polite. As Alligator said, there are a bunch of us who sadly can't report the same sense from our interactions with Anne.

Once again, and after looking at the utterly predictable and truly dismal performance of labour in Devizes, I cannot understand why the party didn't make the intelligent common-sense decision to select Chris Watts as the candidate for South Swindon.

Again, the electioneering scaremongering of campaigning locally on 'saving the NHS' when we have so many health workers living here who experienced her party's 'reforms' might also explain the wall she hit.

Did any of you hear about her undignified spat with Buckland after her weird electioneering speech after the result? Very odd behaviour.
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Offline Tobes

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2015, 10:20:11 PM »
Quote
very disappointed that the Green surge hasn't yet turned into a Green carpet

 :o

I'm really confused by that statement Geoff, given that you've previously expressed some cogent and informed opinions about the functioning of our economy. You are aware that the Greens are trying to simultaneously argue for an end to austerity AND a zero growth economy AND massive extra expenditure on public services - whilst at the same time leaving the EU and levying huge taxation on imports?! No one's seriously proposing that their policies would do anything except create Zimbabwean levels of inflation and a mass exodus of talent are they?

I'm all for the Greens having presence because of their environmental lobbying power, but I'd no sooner see them get any real power into their hands than I would UKIP.

Quote
I 'm looking forward to an in/out referendum so I can register my 'IN' vote :)

You do realise that The Greens have stated that they will introduce huge levvies on imported goods - meaning that leaving the EU would be a certainty under a Green government...?
« Last Edit: May 09, 2015, 11:09:21 PM by Tobes »
I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it - [attributed to] Voltaire... 'Entia non sunt multiplicanda praeter necessita' - William of Occam.... 'You have a right to feel offended, but just cos you are offended doesn't mean you are right'

Offline The Oakhurst Avenger

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #17 on: May 10, 2015, 12:31:04 AM »
How anybody can think the Greens are credible with their policy manifesto is beyond me - and goes to show it takes all sorts to make a world. I for one want to leave the EU in its current format because it is an undemocratic organisation and when you think of the long struggle to extend the democratic franchise in these islands I am always stunned how blasé and relaxed many British people seem to be about our current membership of the EU where only unelected politicians (commissioners) are allowed to make laws. In any case even someone without an economics degree knows that if you put a tariff on imports from another country that country is likely to reciprocate and that a free trade deal is always the preferred option.

Sadly I am less than optimistic about Britains future. I deliberately remove Great because until we become a self-governing nation again and stop this endless lack of national self-confidence our decline will continue unabated.
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Offline Spunkymonkey

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #18 on: May 10, 2015, 12:55:16 AM »
Tobes.

I couldn't agree more.

The only way to significantly reduce CO2 emissions is a prolonged period of economic stagnation. Green policies would require more austerity not less. 

Membership of the EU offers the best chance of a green economy. Green policies place a restriction on company performance. If we are part of the EU with similar restrictions placed on competitors we have a level playing field. If we had stricter rules in the UK than elsewhere we instantly become uncompetitive.

I personally think the main role of the EU is to impose unpopular legislation across the board. By introducing EU wide rules we have a level playing field,

The corporate world would happily ignore the environment in favour of profit. Introducing an EU wide rule creates a level playing field, Having a pro-green UK government would distort the playing field and screw the UK economy.

Offline Spunkymonkey

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Re: General Election Outcome
« Reply #19 on: May 10, 2015, 01:30:51 AM »
I saw the election as a straight choice:-
  • Better welfare payments under a Labour government
  • A job under a Tory government
I voted for the more positive option.

I think a lot of working people also took this option.